Analytics: How Oil Shocked

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The high-voltage era is ready to prematurely send internal combustion engines to the category of fossils. But the evolution of the process resembles little, rather – shock therapy. Or execution?

Yesterday it was different – there was an unhurried progressive development. The authorities gradually tightened the nut of environmental standards, forcing engineers not to stop in improving ICE. Automobile brands drove out the concepts of an electromobile future at exhibitions, slowly trying alternative power plants in real life. And the ball of rules, strictly speaking, the law of the market – whoever is more profitable in fair competition, he earns more on technologies pleasing to the client. In the same Europe, they were anxiously fond of fuel-efficient diesel engines, despite a distinct side effect – the characteristic aroma on the city streets. But in 2015, a dieselgate struck …

About how Volkswagen was caught on a large scam with emissions of harmful substances, broadcast from every TV and radio, not to mention the Internet. But the layman still poorly understands the mechanism of global deception. And the essence of fraud lies in the methods of assessing toxicity. The so-called NEDC (New European Driving Cycle) program seemed new half a century ago, totally outdated by the turn of the 2000s. Although not even the protocol itself is more important, but the method of testing cars in laboratory conditions. The “brains” of a modern car just spit to distinguish between running drums and driving along a training ground where accelerations, inclines, and vibrations appear … Here are the cunning Germans who taught electronics, when testing under the roof of a certification institution, to switch to secret, economical algorithms. As a result, it was great to annoy not only their own company, but also the industry as a whole.

In the wake of the scandal, Europe promptly adopted the new WLTP standard, designed to bring the results of fuel consumption and toxicity measurements to reality. The test cycle was tougher than before – longer, more dynamic, more demanding on the machine. For example, manufacturers were forbidden to send the model in the most environmentally friendly configuration for testing. One trouble – the laboratory did not dare to abandon the greenhouse conditions. And since the running drums have not gone away, what prevents you from inventing the next snag? And the European authorities, in the wake of the “green” moods, decided to take much more radical steps.

The shock to the auto industry was the “bonus” to WLTP in the form of the RDE procedure – Real Driving Emissions. From the name it’s clear: the test was “screwed” to certification in everyday traffic conditions. A gas analyzer box is attached to the car and sent to a route where there is everything – from urban tightness to hills and fast highways. For 1.5–2 hours of testing, the temperature on the street can change, the weather – all this is permissible by the program in a fairly wide range.

And the very first results were discouraged. Completely legal from the point of view of Euro 6 standards, the models almost without fail failed miserably. I even had to temporarily introduce a coefficient that allowed a 2.1-fold excess of toxicity compared to bench tests. And still, some of the new models were delayed with entering the market due to emergency improvements; sales of others were suspended until the exhaust gas purification systems were modernized. An occasion to exhale and take intermediate results? Oh no, environmentalists have just begun. From January 1, 2020, the tolerance on the difference in emissions between the running drums and the actual movement is reduced to 50%. So promising cars to meet the standard indicated by Euro 6d will be oh, how difficult …

And here, independent organizations seriously took up the problem of air pollution. As the Euro NCAP committee once drew attention to passive safety with crash tests, now the AIR office has voluntarily decided to control emissions of nitrogen oxides in exclusively urban traffic conditions. According to the test results, the machine is assigned a letter index (similar to the energy efficiency class of household appliances) – from pure A (green) to the most harmful E (red). And again, a surprise: the debut tests sent even other small city cars with miniature motors to the dangerous category, downsizing failed.

So it turns out that dvigatelistov taught shock therapy. In just four years, the auto industry experienced such a shake-up, which during the tightening of traditional Euro standards has never happened. The ecological engine mount has become perhaps the most difficult component: dual-circuit recirculation systems, diesel particulate filters, selective neutralization with urea injection, accumulators of harmful particles … Therefore, one should not be surprised at the clear trend towards electrifying everything and everything – investing in the development of promising ICEs against the background of extreme calls for their total prohibition and certification problems are less and less willing. It’s easier to follow the path of least resistance.

And it seems necessary to rejoice – the air on the planet will become cleaner. The trouble is that the story comes out one-sided. In the coordinate system designed for traditional engines, hybrids and electric cars really look harmless. At the same time, experts discuss the indirect and direct impact on the ecology of battery recycling, the associated chemical industry and energy, sluggishly, almost without taking this into account. Will it be too late when the dance on the bones of the internal combustion engine ends? However, Russia is still very far from any Euro 6, WLTP and RDE – even the echoes of the blast wave that shook Europe have not reached us. But it’s time to get ready for the meeting.